Westpac CEO Anthony Miller believes Australia's housing shortage will see property prices start rising again next year, despite recent falls.
His main message is simple: the biggest problem isn't demand, it's supply.
Miller says governments should focus on making it cheaper to build homes rather than offering incentives such as first home buyer grants. He believes subsidies for construction materials, roads, water, sewerage and other infrastructure could help bring housing costs down and improve affordability.
Westpac expects property prices to recover once the current downturn ends, forecasting growth of around 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. The reason is straightforward: demand for housing continues to exceed supply.
He also pointed out that many first home buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further, while investor activity has dropped sharply since the federal budget changes.
The reality is Australia simply isn't building enough homes. With the government's target of 1.2 million new homes already falling behind schedule, affordability challenges are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
Key Takeaways
- Australia's housing shortage remains the biggest issue.
- Westpac expects property prices to start rising again next year.
- Supply, not demand, is the main challenge.
- Government support should focus on reducing building costs.
- Infrastructure costs can make up as much as 30% of a home's price.
- Australia is not on track to meet its housing construction targets.
- Housing affordability will remain a major challenge unless supply increases.
My take: Until more homes are built and construction costs come down, don't expect housing affordability to improve significantly. The supply shortage continues to be the key driver of the property market. Make the most of the lull in the market right now as it certainly wont last.
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